I'm not even kidding guys. It has become clear that Bitcoin is entering the mass market now, though still just at the very start of it. While the 11x in the past 11 months has been astounding, this is just the beginning.
We will see 6 figures before 2020. Bitcoin user adoption is gonna grow from a couple dozen million now to hundreds of millions the next two years. Institutional investment in Bitcoin is gonna grow from basically non-existent now to a major new asset class for wall street in the next two years. $100k in two years might actually be a low prediction.
The price behavior you are describing would be extremely uncharacteristic of bitcoin and of any asset. If bitcoin is going to hit $100k, it's going to either happen in the next few months, or 4-5 years down the road after a massive crash and painfully slow recovery, like it did from 2013 to 2017. If the parabolic rise in bitcoin price doesn't continue up to $100k then it will crash before that. If it does, then it will crash after that. In either scenario, it crashes.
To be honest the most likely thing to happen is that CME group futures will start trading in mid December, and some random institutional fund will, on a whim, decide to throw $100 or $200 million dollars into a short position just for kicks and giggles, as a small speculative investment. This will cause the price to get absolutely annihilated, and the bubble will fall apart. An 80-90% decline seems realistic. Maybe we'll hit $15,000 before that happens. Either way, I'm cashing out of what little I have left in the next two weeks.
No.
First of all nothing I said is uncharacteristic of bitcoin. All I said is that it will go up a ton the next 3 years. I never said there will be no crashes along the way. There has been plenty of crashes and corrections this year and obviously there will continue to be crashes because the market gets overly excited during a bull run and a crash must come to correct the price and form a new higher base, and then it continues to climb.
Also you are acting like the crash of Mt. Gox is some normal repeating event that happened more than once and will continue to happen. What you're describing from end of 2013 until beginning of 2017 has happened exactly once and it was caused by the collapse of Mt. Gox. Past bubbles happened just like the nov 2013 bubble but the down period would only be like 6 months before the next meteoric rise. The 3 years it took to come back up was entirely because of Mt. Gox. So what you are saying is just wrong, nothing about bitcoin's history says it will either shoot up to $100k in a few months or else take 4-5 years. That's just your own opinion, which is fine, but don't act like it has any basis in the historical movements of Bitcoin. It's all just opinions.
Also I don't think you are understanding how the CME futures work. They are entirely cash settled. The market won't be touching bitcoin itself, and therefore won't affect the price of bitcoin. They will just be betting on bitcoin's price, like betting on a horse race. Shorting bitcoin in a futures contract doesn't actually short bitcoin, they're just shorting the price, and that would be an extremely dumb thing to do. Investors who do that are going to lose a lot of money. Shorting only works if you're talking about shorting actual bitcoin, and for that to happen all these institutional investors would first have to buy into bitcoin, which none of them have which is why they are creating this futures market so they can make all these bets without actually dealing with the bitcoin market.