Notice the actual
green price has always overshot that
red projection on peaks.
Thus shouldn't we expect BTC to go significantly above $10,000 (perhaps as high as $25,000 - $40,000) within next weeks or months before crashing?
Note I'm not making a prediction. Yet this dip from $11k to $9k feels like not the start of bear market yet to me. The alts such as LTC still stuck below 0.01 BTC, either haven't made their final move yet w.r.t. to BTC (or already made it), being another clue that maybe BTC has not lost momentum yet.
Here was an updated version of the chart, but note that as the
green price has risen since the chart below was computed (and if will continue to rise) then the
red line will rise again (thus only in retrospect will we see that the red line was higher at the end of the bubble than we projected it to be):
I agreed with the following:
This is going to become the biggest bubble of our lifetimes by a long shot, Novogratz said at an industry conference in New York. There will be wild crashes in it.
Late Monday, Novogratz predicted on CNBC bitcoin could easily reach $40,000 by the end of next year.
We have confluence of several factors, which are fundamentally driving the current bubble higher.
These create a PUBLIC CONFIDENCE in the bubble which spreads it to the general public. I have many people telling them what everyone they know is becoming aware of the Bitcoin bubble. Someone wrote that exchanges are adding 500K new accounts per day (is that correct?!!). IOW, were going to overshoot by a country mile any sane rate of price rise, before we crash down hard and long. The fundamentals are too strong and theres far too small of a marketcap right now in crypto, compared to the global interest level. And altcoins will sometimes make their runs w.r.t. BTC (e.g. BCH from 0.05 to 0.3+ as I predicted), so diversifying some to alts and then taking profits when they go vertical is a wise strategy. Appears smart investors can extract another 5 10 bagger out of this crypto bull before the next winter. First all the old-timers need to sell too early, get jealous and repurchase. This bubble has to make fools of everyone and shock everyone before it will be over.
Perhaps were roughly at the analogous level where that volatility got more intense as BTC crossed $400 going vertical in 2013. It continued on to rise ~3X higher.
Wallstreet is coming into Bitcoin:
Nasdaq Inc plans to launch a futures contract based on bitcoin in 2018,
making it the third exchange operator to plan U.S. derivatives contracts linked to the digital currency
Nasdaq has teamed up with New York-based money manager VanEck to develop the futures contract, which will be cleared by the Options Clearing Corporation. The OCC clears all Nasdaq futures products, the source said.
VanEck had applied to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) this year to launch a bitcoin-related exchange-traded fund, but withdrew the request in September after speaking with SEC staff, according to a regulatory filing.
The SEC requested that VanEck wait until the underlying instruments in which the ETF planned to primarily invest - bitcoin futures contracts - become available for investment, the filing said.
And it will enable them to take a greater interest in expanding the number of sheep in Bitcoin as they will be able to extract much of the value out of the ecosystem by front running futures markets:
Since miners have direct access to all "insider information", I believe they could use Bitcoin futures aggressively going forward.
Investors
are transitioning from real-estate globally into movable assets:
The high-end real estate boom is now turning sour. We are looking at property values declining in London, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, New York, and even Miami. The shift will now turn toward MOVABLE assets as capital departs from the fixed asset class.
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Your post of November 16th where you state that the ECB is looking to freeze accounts in a banking crisis, does that mean they will no longer honour the claimed insurance of 100,000 per account?
ANSWER: No. They will not pretend to eliminate that insurance, they just will suspend it as a bank holiday. But you gloss over another problem. The insurance of 100,000 will NOT be honoured per account, but PER PERSON. The US FDIC insurance is also per person when you dig deeper. Europe will also change that on a discretionary basis. The ECB is proposing supplementing it with discretionary powers to suspend bank withdrawals. It reflects the realization that the European banking system is in serious trouble. I recommend that Europeans should have a stash of cash, and if you have a lot of cash in your account, put some into dollars in the States before it is too late.
Also
the international dollar carry trade short squeeze vortex will send capital stampeding out of the Eurozone (and other peripheral economies) and into the dollar, US stocks, and Bitcoin via Wallstreets foray into Bitcoin:
Yes, the French bank Société Générale announced a massive staff reduction jobs. The chairman of the board Frederic Oudea, said that the entire banking industry in Europe is facing serious cuts and the withdrawal of Société Générale is preparing for turbulent times that await us beginning in 2018.
More and more major concerns need us to address the restructuring of the monetary system they can see is coming.
The tide is turning and it is a hard turn.
Nobody will address the issues in advance. Thus, we are being called in by banks who see the handwriting on the wall and want to survive the chaos.
The Royal Bank of Canada (RPC) has been added to the list of the top 30 banks posing the greatest risk. The top US bank is JP Morgan which is now the only bank required to hold an extra 2.5% of common equity after its US peer Citigroup moved down a tier required to hold 2% extra.
All of this is very nice, but also misleading. The Stress Tests by no means are realistic. It is assuming a single failure and certainly does not even take into consideration a CONTAGION, which nobody understands and there have been no models that will even simulate such events outside of what we have specialized in. The CONTAGION is what created the Great Depression
If you look at the graph of 2017, it does have figures of $ 10,000. But on this schedule at the end of 2016, the price had to be above $ 4,000. This is absolutely not true. The price was lower.
Obviously the green line price never exactly tracks the red line projection. The red line represents a level the bubbles must peak above.
Actually many holders of bitcoin got very huge profit after the trade with 10k$ price.This is expected one for many investors.
Indeed, we expected many people who had long-term capital gains to take profits at $10k.
But all I am scared of are the big picture where names like Wall Street are waiting to enter this market through CME's futures that will allow users to short on bitcoins at a greater pace as well. Everyone is looking at this the positive way, but don't forget that each "bit"coin has two sides.
Yup, but they need a larger and larger marketcap to steal from. Volatility can increase as they try to front run insider news they create to profit off the gyrations, but overall they want the market cap to grow.
