104,661,310 tokens * $2,46 = $257,466,822.6 need to be collected
To make this happen we need 200 * <$ value of 0.5%> = $51,493,364,520
(close to a third of today's BTC marketcap: $167,024,234,822)
Under consideration that company tokens will get rewards as well, sooner or later (otherwise they would not have any use case or value) it becomes worse as you can imagine: 205,218,256 PAY tokens * $2,46 * 200 = $100,967,381,952
Let's calculate with 12k per person spent via the card in average, quite high, but may happen:
$12,000 * 0,005 = $60 collected (0.5% reward)
So, to collect $51,493,364,520 TenX needs: $51,493,364,520 / $60 per person and yr = 858,222,742 the amount of customer years required (one customer 10 years is equal to 10 customers one year).
Bad assumptions give bad results To make this happen we need 200 * <$ value of 0.5%> = $51,493,364,520
(close to a third of today's BTC marketcap: $167,024,234,822)
Under consideration that company tokens will get rewards as well, sooner or later (otherwise they would not have any use case or value) it becomes worse as you can imagine: 205,218,256 PAY tokens * $2,46 * 200 = $100,967,381,952
Let's calculate with 12k per person spent via the card in average, quite high, but may happen:
$12,000 * 0,005 = $60 collected (0.5% reward)
So, to collect $51,493,364,520 TenX needs: $51,493,364,520 / $60 per person and yr = 858,222,742 the amount of customer years required (one customer 10 years is equal to 10 customers one year).
1) 12k usd per person per year -> most ppl who get tenx card were early in crypto bussines = they got cash.
I got card for 1 month. My spending was ~11k usd in last month using card. My early spending should be close to 120k-150k usd per year. Average probably should be close to 50% or average yearly salary of person using card or more like 75%. I would say it is safe to assume 30k usd per year per user.
2) You don't count total value equal to 1 year earnings
never ever!. This company will not case to exist in 1 year so this assumption that company vaporizes in 1 year is extremely faulty giving huge error.
Look at Tesla P/E = infinity
Netflix P/E = 189
Amazon P/E = 297
Yelp P/E = 489
(P/E is Price/Earning)
Average for tech companies is ~30. Good companies with good potential growth in future are 100+. So Tenx should have at least P/E=100.
So after fixing base assumptions, let's fix your calculations:
104,661,310 tokens * $2,46 /100(p/e) = $2,574,668 need to be collected
To make this happen we need 200 * <$ value of 0.5%> = $51,493,364
$30,000 * 0,005 = $150 collected (0.5% reward)
So, to collect $2,574,668 TenX needs: $2,574,668 / $150 per person per year = 17164 customer using card.
As far as i can know they will get about 25k working card till end of 2017.
So according to this calculation price NOW should be 2.46$(value used for calculations)*25000/17164 (really working cards/amount from calculation) = 3,58USD per 1 PAY token.
If they get 50k working cards value should be 7,16USD, 100k working cards 35,8 USD.
1k working cards -> 1Pay = 0.35USD
Everything now depends how many cards were shipped! This is very valuable insider info.