Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
JayJuanGee
on 03/12/2017, 10:39:14 UTC
This could well have been written about me.

Quote
I'm not saying that it is always absolutely wrong to have 90% of your assets in BTC or whatever, but it should be because you are intentionally choosing to do so, not because the price got away from you and you never really considered that you now have 90% of your wealth riding on one thing.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7gi55s/dont_invest_recklessly/

I'm spooked again.

So, theymos is now advising those of us who went 50% in on Bitcoin, and are now nearly 90% in due to a rising Bitcoin, to sell 45% of our BTC stash, in order to return to the initial BTC/total investment of 50%.

I respect him, but can't help but wonder if that is a good piece of advice... I feel I should have invested more in BTC when I could. But I guess that's the greedy side of me talking. Will see how things play out...

I also don't really know what he is saying, except perhaps that we need to be  making conscious assessments about what are doing and how we are allocating our assets and whether we may be in a decent position to be considering reallocation.

Surely, I doubt that you need to have anything near an allocation of 50% initially in order to be approaching 90% currently and based on the exorbitant extent of our recent price appreciation(s).

I can look at my own initial goal of allocating around 10% that ended up being closer to 15%, and even though I lost a decent amount of coin through a hacker(s), I still am running numbers very close to 90%, depending on how I frame my investment.  

On a personal level, I feel fairly cognizant about the personal appropriateness of the approach that I am taking, and surely I appreciate the concept of diversification and reallocation too.  i also appreciate the concept of selling on the way up and buying on the way down, which I continue to believe to be a really decent vehicle that could sufficiently address allocation and diversification concerns and allow what might appear to be more risky/lopsided BTC allocation levels.

I know that each of us develop some strategies here, too, and I am thinking about Bob, too... .. I mean sometimes guys give us ideas about the quantity of their holdings, and sure, he is saying that he is diversifying by cashing out some of his Bcash, and stuff like that, and is that level of cashing out enough?  Should not each of us be cashing out a little bit along the way.. just in case (without making any BIG ASS cashing outs?)  Another thing that Bob said, is where is he going to put his money that is better than BTC.. and in that regard, just having it in cash is not better, but it does help to prepare for BTC dips, even knowing that long term cash is not going to hold its value, but for a year or less, it is not a major price to pay to hold some cash, just in case for buying BTC dips, no?

Thanks for replying JJG. I read the entire reddit post by theymos, but just can't follow his advice. I'm not a trader like you, and have been studying the posts here, in order to slowly pick up on trading methods. I have nowhere near the amount of BTC that veterans here like you, Jimbo or BLB have, so for me it's an "all or nothing" game. If I sell almost half of my stash, I'm effectively reducing the chances of financial independence. I will ride the wave and let it take me where it may.


I largely agree with you.    I was going through some of the thought process myself, and I am not really sure if the amount matters, but instead the opportunity to consider these kinds of matters in order that you are making an informed and personally appropriate choice. 

Although I do think that it could matter the extent to which if your whole BTC investment went "poof" then where would you be.

However, the odds of the whole thing going "poof" don't seem too likely. 

Personally, I have been skimming my fund for a couple of years  (ever since $250) and folding the money back in.

Yet, I am not really sure what I would do if the prices dropped below $2k or $1k?  I might use some of that slush money that I accumulated to buy BTC, perhaps?  My buy back plan has gotten so fucking much stronger, especially in our last price surge after the mid-September 40% correction.  That 40% correction caused me to create a stronger plan, and coupled by the fucking crazy ass extra ordinary nearly 4x price improvement from mid-September, I have created buy orders that go further down the chain and more money in my reserves for it BTC prices overshoot further downwardly from those greater extremes that are now within my preparations.

So I feel that my BTC portfolio is in really great shape and even better prepared for either price direction, especially after the mid-September price correction.