But what does it depend upon?
The price of DCR? Number of trx? How can you be sure it will drop

Sorry for the noob questions
Take a look at the "POS Pool Size" here:
https://dcrstats.com/That's how many live tickets there are. I think (someone correct me if I'm wrong) the target number for that is 4096. So, when the pool size is larger than the target and difficulty adjustment happens, the ticket price goes up. If its lower, the price goes down. Obviously it's more complex than that, but that's the jist of it.