Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Why bitcoin indeed "looks" like a Ponzi scheme
by
Nosk
on 06/12/2017, 10:27:09 UTC
First I would like to say something to the people saying "duh it was not designed to be anonymous" : you need at least 2 things to establish a transaction (no matter which currency you use or want to create, try it if you don't believe me) : something that designates the emitter and the receiver. You can characterize it with heavy documents (that includes IBAN, name, second name, etc etc...) or with cryptics but uniques IDs (like bitcoin does). As soon as the addresses remains the same, OF COURSE you can not be 100% anonymous (and by the way, some platforms allow to you change your receiving adress at every transactions, and nothing stops you to create multiple changing adresses if you host yourself your wallet). So yes I agree that bitcoin isn't, by design, meant to be 100%, but a bitcoin transaction is still "a lot more anonymous" than a bank one.

Please, let's not review every possible definition of a ponzi scheme.

The main characteristic of a Ponzi is to give capital gain to 1st investers with the money of the 2nd investers, give capital gain to the 3rd with the 4th, etc... other stuff, like centralized or not is detail.
I said bitcoin "looked like" a ponzi but it is more than that.

So now, let's not review every definition of a ponzi, instead let's cherry pick details to offer a valid comparison? That's the common theme of every failed thesis paper... Even if you use the main characteristic you just pointed, out, as I said, then every trade of every asset can "look like" a ponzi. That's a poor way to start an argument. Definition is usually the starting point. Clarify it, then go from there.

On one side, there is the trading part, giving sometimes huge fluctuations to the value (panic selling, incertitude, external actors...). I think THIS part is the bubble part. Sometimes, price increase drastically and then crashes. Bubble.
On the other side, the price is sky rocketing (and also helps bubble crashes recoveries) because bitcoin exposition controls the number of people coming in (and also the global point of view, even of the bitcoin first enthusiasts : "oh yeah, we talk a lot about bitcoin today, I'll buy some more because I think it will make the price rise").

Bubble symptoms I agree with, in fact, even the most ardent advocate will feel Bitcoin is in a kind of bubble (that doesn't necessarily mean it crashes to zero with every burst) but not ponzi. A ponzi is not a bubble... You might have confused yourself trying to describe a bubble, somehow thinking it looks like a ponzi.



Taking the main characteristic is not cherry picking. Plus, as I said several time, I do not consider bitcoin as a ponzi. I just want to help bitcoin enthusiasts to understand that it would (almost, yes, given that I didn't compare it to a strict definition of a ponzi, if you like) be considered as a ponzi-like scheme if you take away trading fluctuations and currency-uses of bitcoin. A more subtle suggestion of mine is that there is no "price recovery". At least none due to the market. When a bubble burst, price fall down. I think we have seen a lot of non major bubble.
It's the new people, coming into the market, that help to make the price rise again (due to the more-or-less ponzi like scheme it induces). Let me take an example : Late 2013, bitcoin isn't known by a lot of people except super early birds. Price rises to 1200$ and falls down to 200$ or so. It takes years to recover. That was the definition of a bubble. Only, unlike now, there was a lot less people in the market. Am I expressing myself right ?


People who think bitcoin is a ponzi are those people with small knowledge how the blockchain works.  These are the people who were loss from a ponzi schemes using crypto. If bitcoin is ponzi,  then forex,  stockmarket are also ponzi.

Lol please, don't give me that. I am very well aware of the blockchain algorithm and it's completely unrelated to the fact that we can or can not consider bitcoin (which is an implementation of blockchain) as a ponzi. It doesn't matter how the stock is generated or secured (which is what blockchain does, nothing more. Generate bitcoin and secure transactions).

I will repeat myself again : the main difference, making bitcoin looks like a lot more like a ponzi that forex and every stockmarkets, is that the sky rocketing price is directly correlated with the number of newcomers. Compare the google trend curve to the bitcoin's price, watch the big peaks of newcomers, and you'll see that it's a fact.