Post
Topic
Board Speculation (Altcoins)
Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
aminorex
on 06/12/2017, 17:35:48 UTC
I won't believe this ramp is over until Korean and Japanese buying declines.  But... At these prices it takes 1.12 mmUSD to soak up the total daily mining output, and I don't see any reason for miners to retain returns, except speculation - and miners and speculators are almost non-overlapping sets at these price/difficulty ratios.  The more profitable mining becomes relative to other coins, the more mercenary and short-sighted the marginal miner becomes.  

I think if net flows from East Asia drop below roughly 1.5 mmUSD/diem, then we will top out, and draw down as first levered longs, then overextended broke-ass short-sighted dumb money get shaken out.  It usually drops to near the level of the preceeding ATH - Nov 11th, which is a 50% retracement from our current price - before smart money comes in and puts a floor under the price.  Consolidation, catalyst, creep, climb, and crash.  Rinse, repeat.  As in Bitcoin, so in Monero...until you start hearing about Monero every day on CNBC.  You probably want to sell a substantial fraction at that point.  

Anyhow, I have no easy way to measure Asian money flows right now, so I won't be calling this one.