Re: USB ASIC Miners will never ROI at 1 BTC/device

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buy 11th unit next month to compensate a 10% rise in difficulty. and pocket 1.5BTC

rinse and repeat for a constant never ending 1.5BTC income per month.

Network hash rate increased ~ 600% in 4 months (from 25TH/s to 150TH/s) since ASICs started shipping...and the ramping up of ASIC production is just getting started...by many companies that haven't even begun shipping yet. Expect a market flood.

I laugh at your 10% increase every month. Do the math, and a little forecasting both optimistic and pessimistic, either way, the increase in ASIC hashing power will crush your returns faster than a Black Wednesday on the DOW.

Denial is a river in Egypt my friend.

I've been mining for 2 years now. Made most of my BTC in the beginning when hashing power was within grasp of the common man. I'd like to get into ASIC but I just can't justify the prices, especially if you have to pay in BTC. I rather pay good old USD.

Just recently stop GPU mining. I've reached my break even point on my GPU mining. At current USD/BTC, it's just not worth it. I'm willing to bet that a USB miner will no longer be worth mining in less than 6 months (1 BTC/device) from now and you will not recoup your 1 BTC you spent to get it. I'll re-visit this post in 6 months and post an update.

400 MH/s USB miners cost me $2 a year in electricity. Are you sure they won't be worth mining on in 6 months?

depends whats your cost of electricity and the use? 2.5watts or 3? and relative to the value of BTC? since you cannot pay your electric with btc.

2.5 watts at $0.09/KWh

At the moment, electrical costs are roughly 1.5% of revenue. So you are claiming (BTC Price)/(BTC Difficulty) will be 1/67th of it's current value within 6 months? That's a pretty bold prediction

also did you pay 1 or 2 btc for them. i suspect 2.x

I did not buy them. I am operating them for a fee for a friend. Based on the timing, I would say 2 which is unfortunate for him. I wouldn't have bought at that price and I told him that. However, this shouldn't be a competition to prove I made bad decisions. This should be a discussion of facts.

it matters because 400m/hash @ 2.5watts @ 2.x BTC per means you can't realistically collect 2.x btc from that usb @ 10% every 11days you'll get back 1.23btc (nov 2014) + 0.0001 every 11days there after. with diminishing returns, you'll never hit 2.x BTC. not counting -2% fee. so you'll always run it at a perpetual loss because you can't recoup the initial investment cost, no matter how little electricity it consumes, you are always behind.

@ 1BTC cost, same formula, you'll make 1btc back @ dec 13'2013. and 0.2BTC to Nov' 2014.
so you profit 0.2BTC in a year. -2% pool fee and 2 dollars @ electricity. assuming BTC remains at 100usd. you made 18dollars in a 18months. this giving you the benefit of doubt by not calculating pool fee's and unforseen downtime.

assuming a conservative 10% every 11days.