Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Bitcoin Futures - December 10. Will it Rise or Fall?
by
fabiorem
on 07/12/2017, 12:29:58 UTC
There will be hedge funds betting for and against bitcoin.

Certainly the one from Novogratz will bet on a rising. And the ones lead by GS and JPMorgan will bet on a fall.

But we dont know for sure how this really works in its internals. Basically they use leverage in CME for their bettings, but when buying real bitcoin, they will buy in exchanges like Bitstamp and hence they can only do what a whale would do.

In gold, they keep the price down, because gold is held in custody by the State and the banks. They have a monopoly on it. Now for bitcoin, 90% of it is concentrated in the hands of the whales, which are 1% of users. So those funds will keep buying lots of bitcoins to increase the price first, so that they can tempt the whales to dump their stashes, and only then they will short what they have bought.

I was fearing a short right off the bat, because we never know if these funds were hoarding bitcoin, secretly and for a long time, turning them into whales themselves. But most probably is that they werent doing that, as their criticism points to a regret of not buying (as most coinhaters do, they always act emotionally). So maybe the price will go up until it reaches around 30k and then one or two whales try to dump to buy a truck full of lambos. Only then we will have a crash, going back to 10k levels.