Four scenarios and their probabilities for me:
- No correction. (10-20%)
- Correction, but hype hasn't ended: 19.xxx -> >10.000 -> to tha moon (40K?). (20-30%)
- Deep correction/crash with panic and "people trapped inside the blockchain", followed by a real bear market: -> down to ~2.000-3.000 , stabilizing at about $5.000 (30-40%)
- Bitfinex/Tether conspiracy theory is true: -> down to $1000 or below. (10-20%)
This is a good indicator for the "mania" phase of a bubble. Everybody thinks that the highs are the "new normal".
And in a couple of days they can short Bitcoin*
*in reality: an asset based on the Bitcoin price
- No correction. (10-20%)
- Correction, but hype hasn't ended: 19.xxx -> >10.000 -> to tha moon (40K?). (20-30%)
- Deep correction/crash with panic and "people trapped inside the blockchain", followed by a real bear market: -> down to ~2.000-3.000 , stabilizing at about $5.000 (30-40%)
- Bitfinex/Tether conspiracy theory is true: -> down to $1000 or below. (10-20%)
I am usually pessimistic but now most recently I changed sides. Every time so right about now when Bitcoin retrace. There is so much money waiting to enter that they just hold the falling knife.
This is a good indicator for the "mania" phase of a bubble. Everybody thinks that the highs are the "new normal".
Quote
Wall street entered Bitcoin.
And in a couple of days they can short Bitcoin*
*in reality: an asset based on the Bitcoin price