You need to read the comments made in context to see just how off the mark MPOE-PR was.
Specifically it's already paid out more in dividends in the last 3 months than she claimed the shares were worth at most.
I agree with MPOE-PR on a lot of things - on that issue she was utterly wrong. I also undervalued ASICMINER (I sold at about 0.75 BTC - clearly an error with hindsight). What I got wrong was the extent to which BFL and AVALON would totally screw up and leave ASICMINER able to help themselves both to Mining and to sales - and, perhaps most importantly of all, to credibility. What MPOE-PR got wrong was the assumption that EVERYTHING not on MPEx is crap and will fail. Being listed on MPEx is neither a pre-requisite for success (see ASICMINER) or a guarantee of success (see BitVPS, S.BBET so far and the Giga pass-through). FWIW I personally consider a security to be a definite success when (and only when) investors have received back at least the average IPO cost in dividends/final payment. Until then it can only be a likely success that could still end up a failure if the operator ran with the cash - as recovery of funds in scammed/dead BTC securities is pretty much nonexistent.
I tend to agree with you. Hindsight though is a horrible way to make decisions when you invest.
I made a yes bet
here as a gamble because it is a thrilling opportunity for disproportionately large returns. Given the information at the time it was bold and risky, and it is still a longshot bet (though not quite as long anymore).
Even with ASICMiner's stellar actual performance there hasn't been a time where one the hype is filtered that it has seemed to me to be worth quite what its trading for. Even with their credibility and competitor's lack thereof. I am not an investment person. I am not a finance person. I am a gambling person, but without using hindsight I can't look back and with the information (or lack thereof) think there was a time when ASICMiner seemed like a good opportunity.
ASICMINER at IPO seemed a good opportunity to me. At the time my fund was tiny - and GLBSE happened to close when our holding of it were low. But it was the first (and only for about 6 months) share that I intentionally purchased as a long-term holding. That decision is documented in my thread back then. The 2nd such investment was DMC - a totally shite investment but it became worth holding due to its own holdings of ASICMINER after ASICMINER did well. We actually made more from DMC than from ASICMINER itself.
On the bet you linked the Yes side is actually a great bet - not because there's any likelihood of BBET becoming massive this year but because there's a not insignificant chance of an S.DICE collapse. i.e. the bet can be won by S.DICE losing market cap to below BBET as well as by BBET gaining market cap to above S.DICE. I'd still favour the No side but for two factors:
1. With the current odds of about 1:3 I'd be taking on CP risk and the risk of losing the bet in return for tieing up capital for 6 months for a 30% profit. That's just totally unattractive.
2. If MPEx were ever to delist S.DICE they MIGHT declare a win for Yes - as immediately after delisting they could argue S.DICE had a market cap of 0 (not being present in any market it wouldn't have a market cap - even if that were only temorary pending relisting elsewhere). With MPEx/BBET run by same people there's conflicts of interest there I wouldn't want to go near (on the No side). S.DICE is almost certainly in breach of its contract - by charging operational expenses to investors (when the contract explicitly limits what can be charged to expenses for promotion and development) - so delisting is far from impossible.
Whether ASICMINER's worth its current value or not is open for debate. My take on it is to look at what income you believe is sutainable for it then work out what share price would be warranted with a similar P/E ratio to S.DICE or S.MPOE.