Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Bitcoin futures
by
buwaytress
on 08/12/2017, 16:45:41 UTC
Ok, so you don't understand why something that is being traded in fiat would have any effect in bitcoin themselves, right? I'm not an expert myself in futures but this guy did a pretty good analysis:

https://masterthecrypto.com/will-bitcoin-futures-affect-bitcoin-prices/

It seems that, for example, for gold it didn't work too well short term but eventually was meaningless so you might be right. Bitcoin might not be affected at all by it. However because bitcoin is purely speculative right now, I'm sure it will drive the price even higher, hard to tell right now because it's already climbing hard anyways.

Good analysis indeed. Futures to me are just a different way of gambling, since it's all speculation and so called hedgers buying the contracts. Why it's important for Bitcoin is that at the moment, there is no real way for investors to hedge against Bitcoin, more importantly to short it. You could count selling against alt pairs or Tether, but that's still not in fiat currency, which is how all the new futures next week will be settled.

Most investors feel this shorting ability will bring downward pressure on Bitcoin, making price a little more realistic. If they're right, I wouldn't mind. But this is the logic behind forward contracts, not the single-day self certified ones that will debut next week. They're strictly speculative, and hastily approved, rightly to the concern of the FIA expressed yesterday in an open letter to CFTC: https://fia.org/articles/open-letter-cftc-chairman-giancarlo-regarding-listing-cryptocurrency-derivatives

But as the above analysis points out, it may eventually be meaningless.