@miscreanity, imo all that you described is supports my logic on why Bitcoins (cryptocurrencys) crypto winters are becoming longer in duration and less extreme in depth, i.e. speculation is gradually being supplanted by actual adoption.
When you mention Bitcoin in the context of this thread, are you referring to crypto in general?
I agree with your assessment regarding the likelihood of a decline following this run up. It seems that you're also saying that the subsequent activity will be more turbulent, as investment in this sector becomes even more heated than during the prior subdued period - correct?
As for 100k, I threw that out as a remote possibility for a spike high on overshoot. I do agree that the target of 40k is much more attainable in the near-term, although at the moment I have no charts to directly show such levels. My current charts top out around 20k.
http://www.tradingview.com/x/kZTQwBYB/http://www.tradingview.com/x/0gb9bKRl/