My guess is that you are correct.  The main question is what is the level and decline pattern to get to 'despair'?  I had guesstimated that the cycle would be shorter this time and get us into the $40's.  Now I am more inclined to suspect that it will be of similar duration to the last time and take half a year getting well below the previous peak.  That is, into the $20's.  And the next leg up (hopefully into the 4 figures) will be a couple years out.

Of course significant external events could change the 'natural' dynamics significantly.  So if we see the Cypress solution employed in other EU countries, for instance, I could see it short circuiting Bitcoin's native cycle and we could be off to the races.