Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: High prices mean even higher volatility
by
deisik
on 11/12/2017, 15:36:03 UTC
I don't fully understand the logic behind there being more volatility at higher prices, in terms of dollar swings then sure but in terms of percentage swings I don't see how the higher price could lead to that? In fact I probably see more of the opposite, higher prices generally will mean more adoption, more adoption means money better spread means less possibilities for manipulation.

I'm curious what you actually see

Because if you looked at price charts you would certainly see the opposite picture. For example, when Bitcoin first reached the 6k dollar mark it crashed back to 4k, then it went up to almost 8k and corrected to 5.4k. Now we are at 15k, and how low do you think we will go? Further, there is no adoption of Bitcoin in real economy. Steam just dropped it. It is adoption between speculators, but I can't fathom how that could mean less volatility. In fact, it does the opposite

I do not mean from a historical point of view I am speaking from a purely theory based point of view. I do not see the logical connect between prices being higher leading to more volatility in percentage terms. Of course we can look back and see that there is more volatility lately but I think that is because with the increasing price bitcoin are changing hands far more often. If we were to reach a higher price and be relatively stable there I do not see how that would cause more volatility in itself.

Okay, let's speak theory here

If we proceed from the fact that the supply of bitcoins is limited, higher prices may mean less supply provided the coins are being stashed away (which they are). The latter necessarily means that there is no direct relationship between prices and supply (i.e. the higher the price, the higher the supply), which is the case with goods or assets the supply of which can be increased (for example, due to expansion of production). This, in its turn, means that a smaller number of coins can cause stronger price changes or fluctuations, i.e. volatility. In other words, Bitcoin becomes susceptible to sudden bursts of volatility when some whale decides to buy into or cash out of Bitcoin