not jl, but looking at the graphs it is clear that anything between 0 and 2 is a very short living spike as it is supra-exponential.
In all likelihood by the summer of 2018 the graph would be below zero (or fluctuating around it).
I see your point. However, the spring - winter 2013 double spike could potentially play out again. If we spike now, drop back down to 0, and back up again the timeframe would be pretty close.