Very interesting, thanks for your work. Most of the math is beyond my skills, hence someone else has to check.
One question though: How is the difficulty of 77,000,000 calculated at icbit.se? With the latest difficulty increase of about 10% it has to rise ~29% per jump for the next 5 times until September 16. This is far beyond the numbers that are discussed on the forums currently...
I have no clue. The futures market on that exchange decided it... they may very well be wrong.