Post
Topic
Board Securities
Re: The coming flash crash in AMC
by
Entropy-uc
on 30/06/2013, 22:37:43 UTC
I think you're still not clearly understanding the main problem with AMC btw.  The problem is that its structure so that even if it DOES make profit from hardware sales under 5% of it ends up with investors.  How much less than 5% depends on a definition of 'profit' imposed by VMC (which shareholders have no say in or oversight of) - which makes the 'no salary' clause of AMC worthless (as Ken can give whatever he wants as salary to himself/friends/family before profit comes anywhere near AMC) and on how much profit is made.  To get 2.5% return on capital requires $2 million profit on sales to be made - that's sales of ASICs that won't even be out until end of this year/early next by KEN's estimate.

Definitely does not sound good for investors.  Though my understanding was that most of their returns would come from the mining that AMC would be doing.  Either way, a return seems a long, long way off.


This is my major objection to the whole offering.  If you take Ken's own projections of hashrate, plug in a realistic model for the network power (he seems to assume that every Avalon chip but his get dropped in a shredder), and value the company as what it is, a mining company with all it's IP stripped by the operator you will get something close to $5M as the value 6 month from now if he executes on everything he says he will do, and no nasty surprises appear in the market.

$5M is 0.0005 per share.  So his original offering price already was extracting essentially all the value of the company before it has ever executed on anything.  There was no margin for an investor to gain anything if he succeeded! And from that level he raised the price.

When it was at 0.0008 he was touting that the true value of the company was 10-15x higher.  15x higher would be $120M - more than the annual value of all bitcoins available to miners.  Yes ASICMINER is getting that valuation, but they have the hardware business and a dominant position in the mining space.  There is zero chance anyone will capture as strong a position as ASICMINER has today.  Most likely Ken will be one of a dozen consortia that scramble to capture 2 or 3% market share of the network.

That would be ok, and a decent company.  But not when the IPO lists at a price that would only be supported by more than 10% share.