Post
Topic
Board Securities
Re: ASICMINER Speculation Thread
by
Eric Muyser
on 01/07/2013, 15:33:57 UTC
I believe they are overvalued too.

At 4.75 a share, the market capital would be BTC1.900.000 , considering there are about 11 million bitcoins this would have ASICMINER be worth 17% of all bitcoins.

Sigh, another person who doesn't understand valuation.

If you take the total valuation of all BTC stocks, it greatly exceeds the total amount of bitcoins in existence. If you tried to sell every stock that exists, right now, for the current bid, you would need over 100 million bitcoins to purchase them.

Furthermore, I could see us bitcoin users investing 17% of all BTC in AM right now. It's the stock to be in. There isn't though. Friedcat holds half, created out of thin air for 0 BTC, and the rest were purchased at 0.1 BTC at IPO, some up to 2.5, most around 2.5 BTC, and some up to 4.75 BTC. Lets say half were the IPO, and half 2.5, that's like 10,000 BTC + 250,000 BTC. Not much has actually been spent on AM, thus it can easily drop as supply and demand adjusts, and it can go up or down in valuation to basically any number. If 17% of all bitcoins were actually spent on AM, it would probably have a valuation exceeding the total of all bitcoins. The reason we would do this is basically just that we value the returns at this time more than using the bitcoins themselves, which is true for many people (most people hoard BTC, they don't spend them). If there was a 100% liquidation, as people cash them out, the valuation would adjust downward into nothing, going back to what was actually spent on them in many cases, or even lower. So really, the valuation means nothing as far as investment goes, and thus should not be used to determine overvalue/undervalue.