If Bitcoin ends the year at 100 USD, we are lucky. After the 2011 bubble, it fell from 31 USD back down to 2 USD. A similar fall would bring us to 17 USD. But as the top was less extreme this time, the fall will also be less steep. As long as nothing special happens, we will see a continuing downtrend and end the year somewhere between 50 USD and 100 USD. In 2015, when media will have forgotten about Bitcoin again, we will be ready for the next bubble which will bring us to over 1000 USD.