the price probed the current level 3 times within the last 2 months and bumped back up. If anything this indicates that people are unwilling to sell below the current level.

Network difficulty is shooting up dramatically now. Once production cost and market price for BTC become similar (+- 20%) it changes the dynamics. Many miners are speculators who invest in mining equipment in order to acquire bitcoins at a lower price point. However, if mining becomes unprofitable, those people will just buy from the market and likely start another rally. Likely to start around september - or earlier if price keeps falling.