based on both technical indicators and fundamental valuation, this is (to me) unmistakably a bubble. When a bad dividend week comes in, we'll see who is right.
We
already have seen how right your technical indicators and fundamental valuation are.
I've done some statistics with the rate of difficulty increase and the anticipated hashrate increase. They're overvalued.
(I DON'T think they're gonna fail, but I think the odds of being below 1.7BTC before September are worth up to a 0.1BTC premium.)
Like I said, we'll see after a bad dividend week. I'm not always right about the market, or I'd be a billionaire; but I'm pretty comfortable with the amount of money risked to the amount of money I could stand to make on a crash.