The value of ASICMiner:
The value of ASICMiner depends on the total profit it can generate. Let's do some math.
Total bitcoins to be mined: 9,600k
ASICMiner takes 20% of total hash power. This will generate 1,920k.
Assuming hardware sale income is 30% of mining profit, so this part is 576k.
(1920k+576k)/400k=6.24B/share
This is the total profit one can expect for 1 share of ASICMiner in the next 20 years.
value of 1 share of ASICMiner = share price + dividend = 6.24
How will the 6.24B be distributed between share price and dividend? Well, this depends on the investors' emotion and their view of the risk of future income. The gap between 6.24 and share price is risk compensation.
IMO, the share price will fluctuate between 3.x and 4.x in the future. 5+ price is too risky.
My 2 Satoshi.
Transaction Fees.
TX fee is negligible. Note, there is also cost of running a company,electricity, chip design, manufacture,etc.
TX fee encourages hoarding, punishes spending, which is bad.
This computation is incorrect. The block reward is going to halve again in ~3.5 years.
Also, assuming that AM will have 20% of net mining income
as profit, in perpetuity is unreasonable. They can get 20% profit easily right now, because the hardware and electricity cost is small compared to the value of the BTC mined; but as competition ramps up, margins will disappear. You can argue that next-gen chips will help alleviate that, but next-gen designs will not represent significant performance increases within a few years (i.e., designs will catch up to the state-of-the-art in semi processing technology).