just one thing to note is that in the previous 2 bubbles after the pop the retracement was approximately 90% from top to bottom. however the first bubble was more in the 95% retrace and the 2nd barely fell to about 88% i think. of course not an exact science here but if the retrace is getting less deep perhaps the next one will only be closer to 80%, which if the 10k hypothesis turns out to be correct would imply a top in the 50-70k range
But he is ruling that possibility out. He is saying that unless the 10k is tested, he strongly doubts more than 20k-30k. Higher than 20-30k requires testing 10k. If that test to 10k happens from 17k, then bull run continues to 70k-100k. If it happens from 30k, then this bull run is over. I believe one of his earlier posts said 2 years of a bear market this current bull market, but I'm hoping he'll clarify more once 10k is tested.
Disclaimer: I'm solely relying on Google Translate. Perhaps a native Russian speaker can clarify.
It is strange to believe that anyone can serve as a kind of oracle, and sure a lot of those masterluc points make sense - but why should not any of us be able to think through these kinds of scenarios ourselves in order to come to our own reasonable projections regarding price dynamics, which price dynamics also do change based on volume and how much force and speed in which we experience certain price movements, up and down?
I will admit that personally, I don't project beyond one or two legs, and I suppose that makes masterluc and some of the others "special" to be projecting out longer time lines with underlying bullish assumptions (which have ended up playing out, largely).
a lot of people pretend they are good at predicting tops and bottoms. As a matter of fact, only 1% or so are really good at it.
If everyone is good at everything, everyone could be Bill Gates or Elon Musk. But no, that's not how the world works.
Agreed all round, in returning to this forum, masterluc and trading full time, I now see him as just another guy with an opinion. His opinion is of course very valid and it guides us and allows us to discuss our way through different realistic scenarios as we approach them. We will literally talk our way to the top, and identify it as it's happening in this way or just after the fact. That's basically what we need to make the trade or sell the holdings or whatever we plan to do with that information. We won't be identifying the exact time and price now and trading that exactly, that seems ludicrous. There's an interesting trading/market podcast with Michael Covel who always laughs about the idea of prediction in markets. It took me a while to get that, you can't predict the future, you can only guess possibles and probables to give you an edge and align your expectations with reality.
This is how I trade, as you say it's hard to project beyond one or 2 legs, but you can keep multiple scenarios in mind so you are not too surprised when one occurs over another, then when you identify all the signals that surround that scenario you can start to build a picture that equals confirmation of that scenario or a close enough likeness. Then you can trade it. It's always a bit messy, never perfect, and exact predictions always seem to me to be kind of painful in trading as they lead to expectations of the prediction coming true.
I like how luc is giving scenarios, at the moment he says $25-75k if X or Y. Seems a pretty good range of expectations
I enjoy this thread and so glad you're all still here, let's continue talking our way to the next top."analysis never ends"