If these are wrong, then how can we evaluate the success of a potential mining enterprise?
You literally cannot forecast for more than a month in this industry. It is not possible.
That being said the insane ROI times of under 60 days that we have had in the last 2 months are not the norm. At the beginning of the year we were looking at 6 month ROI times on bitcoin miners and still doing this. All the doom and gloom people are just expecting retarded profits to continue on to infinity and thats just not the way it works. This industry ebbs and flows based on a large number of variables. If you cant stomach the ride this is not the industry for you. If you want to evaluate success you are better off looking at what the lowest bitcoin price your business can survive on and go from there. You dont base your calculations on profit, youi base them on survival time.. You also need to make sure you hold enough cash reserves for the times when things arent so hot.