Nice analysis.  

Do these numbers also take into account transaction fees as well?  I've been debating switching over to Kano for a while, but the day I was going to actually make the move about a month ago (12-Nov) it was a very volatile day with BTC price and I saw slush continue to get blocks as Kano just had bad luck.  Luckily I didn't move and I realized that even though it's all luck when it comes to mining there's a benefit to being in a larger pool when volatility is high.