Your assumptions are:
- Eventually all bitcoins will be lost
- That the uncertainty in the amount of bitcoins that are available will effect the price.
- The reason it will effect the price is that there is a potential of an unknown wallet created back in the dawn of time that will be discovered that, after all this time, will be large enough to dramatically shift the market.
- And that trade will halt because of this potential uncertainty which will only increase with time.
am i closer?
Yes. But I would say that the third bullet need not be just one wallet. Collectively, the unknowns becomes greater over time, and that leads to the fourth bullet.
It seems to me that a well designed system would attempt to maintain as relatively constant over time the dynamics of the system. By that, I mean, behavior. I am in no way implying that the valuations should be constant, only that, collectively, valuations made today, or at any point in the future, no matter how far, are made with information that is relatively uniform in quantity. Granted, some noise and fluctuation in the quantity of information is expected. But the system should not be designed with the built in guarantee that uncertainty will increase over time.