Lets just for a moment pretend that someone succeeds making an exchange with the following attributes

- Safe
- Stable
- Secure
- Has no thoughts of stealing money or scamming its user

Lets pretend that the exchange runs just fine for months after months. It even exceeds the turnover and stability that MtGox ever had, and it does that successfully for a long time.

The portal allows for Dwolla, Liberty Reserve and Wire (Iban/SWIFT/BIC) transfers.

Under the rules of the current world that we live in, administrating any form of financial business requires approval and requires the so-called institution to register with the respective financial authority of the country it is residing in. In well known cases this can be FSA (UK), SEC (USA) or any equivalent financial authority.

Operating an exchange platform would mean that money has to move through it (third party funds) and stored on a medium of exchange (a bank) which would be operating in a country (thus being regulated by a financial authority).

Therefore I dont see how anyone successfully, long term, and stable (from a regulatory point of view) would be able to operate without downtime.

While it is true that funds are secured once they reach the BitCoin network, it is also true that the greatest challenge we face is the exchange medium which has to be both stable and reliable in many aspects. The technology part is only one of them. At the end of the day receiving third party funds is where the heavy battle lies.

And unless someone with a license steps into the BitCoin exchange game, and more or less jeopardize their license (due to the fact nobody knows how a government would intervene against a regulated exchange).

So what is our solution? Some rich individual humouring the BitCoin society by testing the waters, or a governmental body in a country stamping BitCoin as an allowed crypto currency and exchange medium (the latter being unreasonable to think would happen).

I dont see any of the two happening, and thus I see a bit problem with BitCoin. Without a stabile price, or price fluctuation it will just be a shadow currency, where exchanging money in and out from will be harder than just purchasing the equivalent in diamonds and getting on a plane or whatever is required to move money anonymously.