Re: Bitcoin market trend analysis- so far the most reliable through 2-month test
Oh look... "Mr 796" (who -- let's drop the pretense -- is probably you, ZhuRong), is releasing forecasts in an attempt to influence his own futures market. Isn't this a bit brazenly unethical? One would think you would at least go to some lengths to hide what you are doing.
I'm sure this is all fun and games for your users -- a gambling site on which you can't lose! Until....
Even if that is not your plan, it certainly looks like it.
You do realise that this is illegal in Hong Kong, right? Have you browsed the HKSRC rulebook?
Funny that the "trend analysis" is "the most reliable". Who would have expected that?
Furthermore... the "stocks"... which you issue (for free!) and (it seems) plan to trade on your own market? Will people fall for that? Are people actually that naive?
Again, even if your intentions at the outset are good, you should not be putting yourself in this position (and your users should be aware of the great danger they are in).
I'm sure this is all fun and games for your users -- a gambling site on which you can't lose! Until....
Even if that is not your plan, it certainly looks like it.
You do realise that this is illegal in Hong Kong, right? Have you browsed the HKSRC rulebook?
Funny that the "trend analysis" is "the most reliable". Who would have expected that?
Furthermore... the "stocks"... which you issue (for free!) and (it seems) plan to trade on your own market? Will people fall for that? Are people actually that naive?
Again, even if your intentions at the outset are good, you should not be putting yourself in this position (and your users should be aware of the great danger they are in).
Hi there,
Mr. Zhu just wants to share his views.
Some friends may take it as reference for Bitcoin investment and the fact is lots of users indeed take profit.
He doesn't invest on his own platform, because he thinks that may bring bad effects.(some people may think he is manipulating.)
Of course it is manipulating. How is it anything else? You can either go into the TA business, or operate a market. Doing both is a massive conflict of interest. And illegal, I might add.
The platform is not involved and the profit comes from trading commission.
If you think the price is abnormal, you may play arbitrage.
I'm sorry, but this looks very suspect. You have a gross conflict of interest.
You've posted this topic in 3 places across the forum. It's either for marketing, or a confidence trick. In my opinion there is a high chance it is a con.
First of all, there is a reason that I, Vokain, and others in your other threads have raised our concerns. It is very improper to see the boss of a "futures exchange" predict the price.
Currently your predictions are in line with general market expectations, and so it is easy to attempt to win over confidence this way.
However you have a *lot* of deposited BTC at your disposal. At any point in the future, you can use this to move MTGox against your predictions and force-liquidate any big players. The part that really sucks is that you could use people's own BTC to bet against them. I really don't like the look of this one bit.
Any futures site could do this, but there are two factors that make you stand out as being untrustworthy:
(1) you seem too eager to "predict" the price to your "followers" (and describe the predictions so reverentially)
(2) There is no true way to arbitrage against you in both directions, as you can only deposit/withdraw bitcoins at your site, not CNY or USD.
If I am wrong, and this is just marketing, then it is bad marketing.
As an aside, to address your response: I don't believe that your platform doesn't participate in trades. The 12k+ daily volume coming within under a month on a "futures" exchange is highly suspect. I believe many exchanges are guilty of this, but there is no way to prove this.
Furthermore, true "arbitrage" is difficult when it seems that one can only deposit and withdraw BTC (not fiat) at your exchange. The way you have the market set up, it is practically impossible for me to bet against you and win, if I believe you are a scammer. You hold all the cards, and have all the information.
First of all, thanks for your time to pose these questions.
We do want more people to know about our exchange.
Mr. Zhu did make it very clear in his microblog that he is better in predicting one days trend tops.
Thats why we update every day.
To be frankly, most of our investors did take some profit following him.
We made clear descriptions that we will perform settlement weekly, because we believe this is for most investors interest and could reduce the risk of being held up for a long period.
And it has proven to be pretty good.
Out of legal consideration, we dont want to get involved in fiat money.
We just offer Bitcoin deposit/withdrawal.
Members in our platform do transfer to realize trading.
About arbitrage, thats when you may grasp a good chance.
I may give you an example here: (24th, June)
The BTC price on 796 Exchange is a little bit higher like $7 a few days ago. Cutting fees from both sides and transaction difference, the profit could get to 5% at least.
It is quite simple to achieve this when the price is over 3% more than that of Mt. Gox.
The volume on the platform comes from both sides as you know its futures trading.
And wed like to emphasize that our platform doesnt participate in trades. All happen among traders themselves.
Sorry for the late response.