Hiatus effect
The vast majority of the recent bearish threads have completely ignored the MtGox withdrawal hiatus effect on bitcoin. Look at the price the day before the announcement, then look at the sharp downturn immediately after. The withdrawal hiatus without a doubt had an effect. I was actually surprised that bitcoin didn't drop much further than it has.
Don't forget the effect of Satoshi Dice closing to American players starting May 16th. If you look at the charts, this was when there was a step change ftom about $125 to $115.
I think the gambling sites really supported the BTC price because people had to buy BTC to play. Whereas sites like Bitpay suppress the BTC price because for every transaction they are having to sell BTC and buy dollars to pay the retailer.