I am assuming you are talking about the false breakout to 16k, since it is now 14k.
Can you explain why this was obvious in hindsight? I'm just curious, because I thought it could stabilize at around 16k, high 15k.
Honestly, hard to say. Just... Instinct? The way it was bouncing in such a narrow channel, then broke up and started falling. Should have known it would keep dropping way lower like it did.