What is "really fall"?

Do you realize that we already had about a 43% correction from $19,666 to $11,160, and surely we had some decent rebound from that $11,160 low point, and surely, there is no guarantee that support at $11,160 will not be tested again, but you certainly have no guarantees of any such retest or prices going below that $11,160 level. 

O.k. I understand that you might have some kind of primary target of what you believe to be a "real fall", yet do you have a back up strategy in case your primary target is not too likely to play out?  Further, what kind of odds are you placing on this "really fall" outcome?