There are actually thousands of coin whose price is under $1, price doesn't matter in crypto if there is huge supply of coin than its price will never get too high for example doge. It is quite old coin but still struggling to get over 1 cent.
Same goes for many other coins and tokens which are high in supply but demand for them is really low.
Your crypto price analysis is most viable one among others that is very realistic. Price is a function of demand and supply thus if the supply is greater than demand there's a likelihood that the price will decrease. A long supply curve is a determinant of a decrease price function. These are simple laws of basic economics. This economic relationship is what is creating the impact in the cryptocurrencies market. Thanks