Post
Topic
Board Service Announcements (Altcoins)
Re: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game
by
iMiner
on 13/07/2013, 17:15:19 UTC
What the Hell is going on? Profit from 1,8% to -0,08 in a short time. That just can't be luck...

It's variance.

The total standard deviation after multiple bets is: SD = sqrt(N)*unitSD*(bet size)

He bet with a bet size between 10 and 250. Lets assume a mean bet size of 100. The unit SD is 1 in this game, so after about 100 bets the total SD is 1000. He realised a 2000 coint profit, which is a 2SD event, or probability of about 5%.

I don't know how many bets were made, but it would not surprise me if it were >100. Then the result is even more likely.

No reason to divest. It was equally probable that the house was up by another 2000 coins Smiley