What is realistic?  There is no precedent, we are all in this for the first time.  What does it take to lose that first mover network advantage?  Or was it an advantage, in the long game?  I think XMR will dominate, simply on ethics and fungibility. .4 - .5 is an area through which we must pass to do so.  It remains to be seen how this ecosystem will stabilize, or if it implodes under its own weight, even.