Post
Topic
Board Securities
Re: Lab Rat Data Processing, LLC (LabRatMining) Official Announcement
by
btcmonkey
on 17/07/2013, 16:45:11 UTC
This security provides a return that is an order of magnitude more than most of its competitors. It is totally competitive in its own market. I think it is fine to question the value of the market (though existing interest seems to be speaking for itself), but don't blame this single security.

I also understand people's concern about wording of the prospectus and what may be missing, not covered, or inappropriate. I also get the argument about the bads of centralized mining corporations and arguments comparing this class of securities to raw physical mining. I think those thoughts need to enter into your valuation of this equity, but decisions based on those issues are pretty personal and tough to quantify.

I am more concerned of there being no clear indicator of when mining will come online (and even more, if it is piecemeal as has recently been discussed, how can you commit to 100MH/s out the gate).

Given that though, thinking about when mining may come online, even with a high estimate of total network hashrate and an underestimate of what Lab_Rat would deliver, it seems like, for a bond/security of this type, this has a decent raw ROI of dividends.

I will make a couple assumptions for this analysis, that you are free to challenge but I consider reasonable or conservative (at least the first 4).
1) This stock will start delivering dividends in the month of October.
2) The total network hash rate will hit 1500 TH/s (1.5PH/s - peta hash) by that time.
3) Lab_Rat will only ever deliver equivalent of 100MH/s per share. (contrary to stated plan)
4) These shares will continue to be worth 0.15 BTCs each with no growth (or reduction).
5) A year later the network hash rate will be around 8PH/s.

Please help me check my math:

with 1500TH/s, aka 1,500,000,000MH/s (~210million difficulty)
at 3600 BTC generated per day across the network (on average)
then 0.000002394253791 BTC will be generated per day per MH/s (3600/1500000000)

@ 100MH/s each share will deliver 0.0002394253791 BTC per day (100 * 0.000002394253791)
@ 365 days in a year each share will deliver 0.0873902633715 BTC per year (365 * 0.0002394253791)
@ .15 per share price the calculated % return of this stock, in dividends, is 58.25% (0.0873902633715/.15)

Though this is incomplete (especially in assuming a one time starting hash rate for an annual return), this seems to be the type of analysis many are doing to identify value of dividends for comparison sake. 58.25% seems particularly high for this class of stock. If you add in the chance for 166 or 200MH/s stocks (likely) and increases in security values (likely) then it gets even better.

Going to the other extreme where I assume the year-later hashrate of 8 Petahash/s the same calculation nets a dividend return of 11%. This seems low for a stock with this risk profile, but high compared to peers and pretty ok given that this assumes no growth in stock and no increase over 100MH/s.

Whether you want to hold up BTC in a stock that won't pay dividends for 3 months is another thing. If we consider our year starting now, then that 58.25% return turns into 3/4 of itself or 43.69%.