okay wave-heads, I'm not surfing.

The question is whether this AM's selloff was actual shares from the satoshidice payout or a closing of positions by several longs
in anticipation of the profit-taking to come.  One factor is the volume - if we'd seen a sudden 120K shares dumped, that would be pretty clear.

I'm guessing that the news of the pending payout triggered selling - given the current lack of liquidity it doesn't take many BTC to make a 10-pt drop.

Also if the drop were caused by profit liquidation, why would it happen all at once like that?     It seems more likely that the payouts would happen gradually simply due to processing time and perhaps to protect against a single dump.    If those conjectures are correct, the real selling will happen in the coming days.