Right now Bitstamp shows the future price of MtGox.
Or MtGox shows the future price of Bitstamp.
I think that bitstamp should follow gox, because of difference in volume...?
Well think about it. If Gox has a problem getting money out, then how do you get money out? You buy coins and sell them elsewhere. What does that do? It drives the price down on these others exchanges.
And, it also inflates the price on Gox as your choice there is to either buy coins or sit in fiat. No taking your money out, no moving it to another exchange (outside of via coins), etc.
Gox is still the leader in volume but that is declining fairly steadily. I think they are a very secure exchange, but people are getting tired of their crap. The choices are increasing, and if you are not a daytrader, then Gox is no longer the clear leader (actually, even if you are...)