Post
Topic
Board Securities
Re: Active Mining Speculation Thread
by
Vbs
on 19/07/2013, 10:25:10 UTC
The pull/push of shares was because on Bitfunder all shares receive dividends, so in order for only the outstanding to receive them, he had to pull the wall, de-issue them, pay the dividend, re-issue them and post them again.

Thanks - good to know. This forum really needs a thanks button. Or a bitcoin tip bot. (tho why 150->250k?)

This isn't an AsicMiner thread so I'll limit this to an ActiveMiner comparison. AM is 'established' (for Bitcoin!) so the share has a value beyond the dividend. It's seen as a safe place to store money, has room for more share gains (partly because of this), and will earn an income. ActiveMiner's share price is based upon the risk/reward of the business plan, so future dividend predictions are vital.


I'm thinking each one of those Avalon clones would cost something from $1,000-$2,000 in reference board materials + assembly, so let's say $1,500*63 = $94,500 in total, which is about $94,500/$90/0.0025 = ~420,000 shares at 0.0025 and $90/BTC. Considering the leftover funds, the 250,000 shares on BF should be enough to cover that expense in full and it's very important for them to be 100% assembled as soon as the chips arrive.

These are my latest estimations. I really think what will make ActM push forward at record speed is the bulk chip sales. Grin

New update, this time I considered some hardware selling estimates, as well as the impact of Ken's 15M shares on the whole operation. Smiley

(any errors found, just shout! Grin)

Considerations:
  • Mining
  • Klondikes mining at August (worst case)
  • Avalon chips overclocked to 380MHz, since they will be running on Springfield Underground data center
  • November/December (worst case) hashrate increase from the high-volume process (low-volume is not worth it for just a ~month difference), using BTC1.2 per chip+assembly cost, chips at 16GH/s, not overclocked
  • 50% of mining dividends used to buy new Fast-Hash-One 16GH/s chips
  • Total network hashrate includes ActM's mining plus hardware sold to other parties (200% markup)
  • Sales
  • Sales volume is really hard to predict. I just assumed it to be 2x the profits of mining, which I still think is really on the low side, as ActM is gonna also sell chips in bulk. For example, Avalon in getting ready to ship its ~BTC164,000 in bulk chips. There is definitely money to be made in bulk chip sales!



Conclusions:
  • Investors are fully reimbursed of their paid BTC.0025/share around December/January
  • The MH/s/share and MH/s/BTC are indeed crazy profitable
  • As soon as the unit price of chips gets down (it will drop 1/3 to 1/4 even before going to easicopy), the hashrate can rise even much further
  • Having direct access to buy hardware at manufacturing cost is what really makes this possible
  • The effect of hardware sales is just mind boggling