Post
Topic
Board Speculation (Altcoins)
Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
alaskabm
on 07/01/2018, 00:11:55 UTC
Dear Aminorex,

I find your economic analysis around XMR really inspiring and detailed (i made a lot of research around the web but still can't find any better economic analysis). So first of all thank you for sharing. I will now dive into the subject:

Total market cap of crypto is now growing at around 20-30bn per day and I can't figure out how long this could last. At this rate we will reach 2T in no time. At some point this will probably burst and unfortunately affect also XMR since market risk cannot be avoided. From what I understand reading your posts is that these are normal cycles in crypto that repeat over time. My concern is that this time the dimensions are way bigger in relation to time, we went from total market cap of 200bn to 800bn in 3 months. I'm not saying that the market will crash at 2T as you can hear many people making comparisons with the market cap of Gold which is around 6T. What scares me is that all crypto shitty coins are growing 10x and people are buying into them without even knowing the name of the coin. I can't figure out for how long this game of hot potato will last. I am trying to understand who are the last people getting in that will get burnt, right now even average Joe is buying into crypto after hearing about Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ripple and Tron spectacular returns. Average Joe is also greedy and stupid but not dumb so he buys into coins that have very low prices without looking at the market cap and circulating supply. He goes on Binance (slightly more sophisticated average Joe) and buys the low priced ones. He hopes that tomorrow another average Joe is willing to buy at a higher price. At some point the game ends since tomorrow there are no more buyers.
Is there any analysis that could be made to understand how many more average Joes are still left out that want to join?
How are institutional investors playing the game now? How is smart money playing the game?
From the rumours ETFs could come out soon so that could bring even more liquidity to the market and could possibly delay the bubble burst, is this the temporary solution to more liquidity?

Anyone can feel free to answer my questions.