The one that was converted to 2FA - if this was done AFTER 10-24, wouldn't a pre 2FA seed word set work to recreate the one private key that is of interest?
In short... yes, if they moved their coins to the 2FA wallet AFTER the fork, then their old, original "Standard" seed would allow them to get the private key. Note that with a Standard Electrum wallet, you don't even need to use the seed+BIP39 tool, you can just goto the "Addresses" tab ("View -> Show Addresses"), right click on the address you are interested in and select "Private Key"

(not sure how a conversion to 2FA works but it seems it would require a new seed word sequence and hence an entirely new set of key pairs)
You don't "convert" to 2FA as such... you generate a completely new wallet with a completely new seed... and then send all your coins to the new 2FA wallet... so yes, you are correct, the 2FA wallet will indeed have a new seed mnemonic and entirely new sets of key pairs.