Post
Topic
Board Securities
Re: Active Mining Speculation Thread
by
ArcticWolf
on 19/07/2013, 22:04:58 UTC
New update, this time I considered some hardware selling estimates, as well as the impact of Ken's 15M shares on the whole operation. Smiley

(any errors found, just shout! Grin)

Considerations:
  • Mining
  • Klondikes mining at August (worst case)
  • Avalon chips overclocked to 380MHz, since they will be running on Springfield Underground data center
  • November/December (worst case) hashrate increase from the high-volume process (low-volume is not worth it for just a ~month difference), using BTC1.2 per chip+assembly cost, chips at 16GH/s, not overclocked
  • 50% of mining dividends used to buy new Fast-Hash-One 16GH/s chips
  • Total network hashrate includes ActM's mining plus hardware sold to other parties (200% markup)
  • Sales
  • Sales volume is really hard to predict. I just assumed it to be 2x the profits of mining, which I still think is really on the low side, as ActM is gonna also sell chips in bulk. For example, Avalon in getting ready to ship its ~BTC164,000 in bulk chips. There is definitely money to be made in bulk chip sales!



Conclusions:
  • Investors are fully reimbursed of their paid BTC.0025/share around December/January
  • The MH/s/share and MH/s/BTC are indeed crazy profitable
  • As soon as the unit price of chips gets down (it will drop 1/3 to 1/4 even before going to easicopy), the hashrate can rise even much further
  • Having direct access to buy hardware at manufacturing cost is what really makes this possible
  • The effect of hardware sales is just mind boggling

I LOVE this, but is there any chance we can make a slight modification to have the estimated divs in numerical form rather than in scientific notation?