Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Bitcoin volatility paradox
by
molecular
on 21/07/2013, 13:53:03 UTC
yes, you are. bitcoins have indeed a limited supply, and stability in the price does indeed raise demand which in turn raises the price.
BUT hughe price increases usually come with observable causes in the real world: more news being posted and switch from cpu to gpu was the first jump in price, since gpu sales in the high end market went through the roof. The second jump was cyprus declaring bank accounts to be frozen, and asicminers/fpga's coming into play.
Note that btc prices still rose independent from those jumps, but those jumps were clearly visible nonetheless. And the famous bubble bursts were not real bubble bursts; both were made artificially (the first mt.gox? being hacked and the second mt.gox inability to process the huge amount of new customers and the resulting downtime/delay driving fears of another hack ).

And if you watch the graphs a little you will notice that the "buuble bursts" have only driven the bitcoin prices to a little more or less than before the jumps.ss

you're making up stories to explain the past:

  • "The second jump was cyprus declaring bank accounts to be frozen" <- wrong. jump started january, cyprus happened sometime in march. cyprus certainly helped the hype, but it wasn't the sole reason for the bubble
  • "and asicminers/fpga's coming into play" <- fpgas started in late 2011, asics started hitting late february, why would mining tech change cause hype?
  • "the first mt.gox? being hacked" <- 2011 bubble burst before the hack.