Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Goomboo's Journal
by
Goomboo
on 21/07/2013, 19:53:58 UTC
Goomboo..  Did you see my question on Page 40?    Was hoping you could give me some advise..   PM me if you don't feel you want to post it in this thread  I don't want to derail this thread..


  Thanks!


Sorry, I totally missed it!  Here are my thoughts:


Anyway not to get off subject but I have had an interest in the Forex market for some time but always hatted the SPAM forex Emails I use to get tons of and always heard the Forex market is a REALLY hard market to make any money off of and that most of the ones making money were the ones spamming us and selling their expensive ForEx products..  (This is one thing I could never understand when it comes to any kind of investing..  Why would someone that has such a great method or system want to sell it instead of just using their method?  Always made me wonder was their method that cost $4,000 really that great..  I know some are legit but this always struck me as odd and probably why I never bought into any of these seminars or products they were selling)

The financial world is full of snakes and snake-oil salesmen.  The retail Forex market, even more so.  The vast majority of currency traders consistently lose money:

http://forexmagnates.com/exclusive-q2-2013-us-forex-profitability-report-35-of-retail-clients-gain/

I have periodically glanced at this report ever since the NFA required retail foreign exchange brokers to publish their profitability figures and it has been a fairly consistent trend: 80% of all traders lose money every single quarter.  For this reason, you are wise to realize that the vast majority of signal providers/Forex spam emails are absolute lies.

Could you maybe suggest where someone like me could get started in learning about Forex?   Any good complete beginner books you recommend?   That baby Pips sight looks interesting.  Should I just start there?

As you said, Baby Pips is solid for every beginner in FX: http://www.babypips.com/school/


My suggestion is to spend your time learning about the principles of trading rather than focusing exclusively on the Forex markets.  After all, if you learn to manage risk and identify good trading opportunities, you can transfer these skills to any market/risk-based endeavor you enter.  On that note, here is a list of resources I've found to be helpful.




Now, as to this question:

I am assuming you can apply this same EMA strategy outlined in this thread to the Forex market?

In general, hourly moving average crossover systems are not profitable outside of BTC.  The extreme volatility and relative infancy of the market allows aggressive trend following methods to profit.  

Here's a backtest of the 10/21 crossover on EUR/USD hourly since the beginning of the year.





Daily crossovers are still profitable, however.  But you must be willing and able to stomach periods drawdown.  For example, if you traded the 10/21 crossover, you would not have earned a profit between 2004 and 2006.