The situation with ATMs is pretty much reflecting the actual-demand-on-the-streets... sellers aren't selling and need extra incentives, buyers are willing to buy at much higher premiums.

ATM companies know that they can't really make money on commissions if they don't have bitcoins to sell, and they won't really acquire bitcoins if they can't be tempting enough on their prices that they buy from people. So they need to get those bitcoins, even if at a premium, in order to have something to sell to those who want to buy (and thus make money on the buyer).

We have a situation analogous to precious metals a few years ago when the street market was not correlated with the spot prices - but this is in a greater degree now with BTC.