Hello! Who can intelligibly explain what pushes the price of a coin? Is it worth it to sit on the longevity, or fix the profit and exit it? Are there fundamental events in 2018?
A. Supply and demand.
B. If the estimated return distribution over time fits your goals better than any alternative allocation, you should not adjust your allocation.
C. Some expected fundamental events in 2018:
* The everything bubble - stocks, bonds, real estate - stops inflating as China slows or (ZOMG!!)
reverses US sovereign bond flows.
* Oil price rises as ROEI declines, dragging hard money prices up with it, and retarding the global productivity curve.
* Crypto correction hits BTC first, later ETH. BTC snaps back with Lightning.
* XMR demand rises with improvements to:
1. Ease of use (e.g. native iOS wallet, multisig in core GUI, hardware wallets);
2. access (direct USD exchange);
3. privacy (Kovri);
4. scalability (bullet proofs); and,
5. further market penetration and expanding transaction volume (Globee, DNMs).
* XMR supply drops with increasing difficulty, reduced rewards, rising reserve demand.
But the real wild card is the potential for a hyperinflation crisis in the FX majors. This becomes much more likely if strategic polarization or nationalism break the central banking quid pro quo balance. The Chinese bond flow news could be the first big crack in the dam, or not.