Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Ding Dong! The Bubble-burst is done! $90-95 is the new normal
by
semaforo
on 23/07/2013, 11:29:40 UTC
The key difference between this recent price spike and the previous spike, is that in the case of the recent spike, there has been a similar situation in the past and bitcoin survived. The human mind looks for patterns, and everyone can see a pattern forming here.

Remember in school? 1,3,5,7, which number comes next? In this case it is 1,30,5,260,??? the logical answer is 25, 2000.

    These are linear patterns. Bitcoin will not behave linearly for the following reasons
1) demand for drugs
2) fear of regulation
3) the believers

    These are elements that exist in no other investment vehicle. There is no way to gauge how many iron willed believers are hokding bitcoin. Many have been steeled by the previous price drop against the jitters in this price drop. There is no telling how many believers with piles of cash are out there who have not yet heard about it or are thinking about it.
   There is no telling how much volume will be generated as more and more people start buying their regulated medications with bitcoin and street dealers become less available.
     There is no telling what regulatory events or geopolitical events will influence price. There is no chance of bitcoin being killed by regulation, firstly because Russia will never outlaw it as long as it is taking market share from the dollar, and secondly because poorer governments will stand to profit hugely by becoming bitcoin havens.

       Sometimes when watching the price I think, a watched pot never boils, but I tested that, and it does. Just the perception of time dilates... so here I am on this forum.