Given our sample size of 67082 runs, I think that luck is ironed out by statistics at this point. Finding a crypto solution by "luck" would imply that the machines began the calculations at a different starting point in instruction sequence, wouldn't it? However, if my machine does, say, 100MFLOPS, and begins a 10-trillion operation procedure to decode a block, and another machine with 1GFLOPS begins the same procedure at ANY time when I'm not 90% done with the process, then the faster machine will always finish faster, will it not? These are deterministic machines working on deterministic problems, with finite starting and ending points and X number of steps in between....I fail to see where luck comes in to play.
Everybody is working on a different problem.
I am trying to find a hash for a block which includes a transaction paying ME 50 BTC, you are trying to find the hash for a block which includes a transaction paying YOU 50BTC. These blocks will be different, so the nonce value required to hash them below the target value will be different.
On the other hand, as I have a rather slow (but not ancient) laptop, I'd LIKE to see how luck comes into the equation...so if anyone can fill me, in, please do so.
I have an old slow machine that is only getting about 80khash/s, I managed to generate a block when the difficulty was 23. That seems pretty lucky to me.
One question...Do machines cease work on a block upon discovery that it has been finished first by someone else, or does everyone keep working on a block until he/she is done? In this case, it is conceivable that if I happen to start the next block at the right time, I could "by luck" finish first...on the other hand, if machines all discard their current block when it is finished by someone else, then everyone is beginning the blocks at roughly the same time, and the fastest machines will win almost universally. Anyone care to shed any clarity on the situation?
Once a valid block comes through, everyone stops working on the one they were working on and starts working on the next block.
It doesn't really matter if you start a few seconds before anyone else, because you're working on a different problem as I explained above.