So this alleged ponzi was devised on his own (or the group's own) website? It wasn't done on this forum, or on an established security exchange, it was its own site dedicated to one security?
It started on the forum, though it probably originally started on an IRC channel, where Pirate established a reputation as a currency exchanger. Others in IRC who worked with Pirate gave him a lot of benefit-of-the-doubt because of his large volume of activities there without any sign of being a scammer.
He was basically just looking for loans on the forum when he posted. He'd claim to have a limited amount of availability, like someone responsible, but I don't think he ever actually ran into those "limits" with anyone.
@ "Why don't you think this will turn into an actual case?" - Because the SEC hasn't really given me any confidence with their post and complaint. They haven't verified his location, and it'd be totally unreasonable for Pirate to stay in the same place given he knew he'd been formally reported for tens of millions in fraud a year ago. When a USG LEO bureaucracy focuses on snagging someone, they generally don't give the guy advance warning. They come in unannounced, serve you an indictment, and detain. There's no indication of that happening. Ofc, this is a civil case, not a criminal case (for whatever reason...). Different play-set.
Right now, there's no information suggesting Pirate's in custody, over a year after he defrauded people out of tens of millions worth of USD. That doesn't inspire any confidence at all in the SEC's prosecution.