Given the average rate over the past month or so, we are going to be approaching a difficulty number with a 5 handle, from its current 2 handle.
This will absolutely crush even the Antminer S9 profitability unless bitcoin doubles or more from here.
This is the single biggest issue I see in mining now.
When I first decided to buy the Antminer S9 in late November, I noted that slushpool had about 48,000 workers (Early Dec.), I will be getting my miners shortly, but now slushpool has almost 74,000 workers and in the next two months that's probably going much higher. And I'm sure its the same at every pool, including Kano which I'm likely to be joining. But I can't see how these miners stay profitable past July-Aug at current rate of increase of mining machines and difficulty.
What are you long term miner's thoughts on this subject?
Well I have not been mining consistently all these years but I started in 2013. I think it depends on if you are mining for cash flow or mining to accumulate some BTC. If you think BTC has a bright future and hodl, mining is not a bad way to go. Although with the prices miners are bringing on Ebay you might be smarter to sell the miners and buy BTC with the proceeds. If you are mining for extra cash I think that the stream is goinng to run dry much quicker than most people getting in today expect.
One S9 figuring a 28% monthly increase in difficulty and a 0% increase in BTC price starts loosing money about 9 months out looks like. If you figure a 1% monthly increase in BTC it remains profitable for about a year.
EDIT: The above is calculated using a reward of 15BTC per block, so if your not mining where they pay the transaction fees it would not apply. Also the 16BTC could go up or down, who knows.
For me, I mine because I like to and feel crypto in general has a future. For some reason I feel it is more satisfying to mine coins than to buy them. Probably not the best finanacial decision but it is a personal choice.
Mine on!